Well this is interesting. Turkey has shot down a Russian Su-24 attack aircraft. The aircraft was hit by an air to air missile from a Turkish F16, both pilots ejected and the aircraft crashed in Syria. Turkey has justified it’s actions by saying the aircraft was inside Turkish airspace (this is denied by Russia). And Putin has responded by saying there will be “serious consequences” for the actions. It’s been confirmed that the aircraft was warned “10” times as per protocol before being engaged with. Whether or not Turkey’s claim that the aircraft was inside it’s airspace is true is not yet clear, but they won’t be able to justify their actions if it’s proved that the aircraft wasn’t in Turkish airspace. Nato has said that IF an aircraft violated Turkish airspace, it would be ready to defend Turkey. So this could be quite a big deal if Russia responds with military action. Where do countries stand on the matter though? Well looking back at my Migration Crisis blog, I said “America is allies with Turkey and the Kurds. Turkey and the Kurds are enemies but are united in their hate for IS. And IS is enemies with Assad”. But would America really defend Turkey? Only time will tell. Russia and Turkey differ in that Russia supports Assad where as Turkey does not.
I hate to say it, but I do think that Russia had this coming. I know that’s insensitive when the pilots could have been killed. But Russia has been violating airspace since before this whole thing started. They regularly fly very close to UK airspace and wait for our Typhoons based at RAF Coningsby and RAF Lossiemouth to respond. It’s intimidation tactics and IT IS ILLEGAL. It’s against international law. A Russian ‘Bear’ flying off the Scottish coast happens so frequently that it’s barely news any more. It happened very recently and the major news providers barely covered it because it’s such a frequent occurrence. So I’m afraid that they had it coming. The Turks did the same as the RAF do. They warned the aircraft that it would be shot down if it did not change it’s course. And it seems that in this case the aircraft did not cooperate.
“I am certified by Her Majesty’s government of the United Kingdom to warn you that if you do not respond immediately to my orders to turn east, you will be shot down”. That quote was taken from a training exercise where an RAF pilot gave the final warning to a rogue aircraft. To understand how the RAF typically respond, I suggest you watch this video:
Could anything come from this? I’m going to struggle to give a conclusive answer. But what I will say (and I may be criticized for how I compare the two events) is that World War 1 was trigured by the assasenation of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand. It may seem like a small event but it started a war. This is massive event politically and Putin is known to be unpredictable. Keep your eyes on the news over the next few days…..